The Indians Use Statistical Analysis to Accurately Forecast Ticket Sales..

Is your organization looking for new ways to predict trends in fan attendance?

Bloomberg recently featured a fantastic article this morning entitled Moneyball II: Statistics Driving Marketing for MLB's Indians that details how the Cleveland Indians are using historical analysis to better predict how fan attendance is affected by a collection of variables:

  • Entertainment (Post-game fireworks draw crowds of 4,000+ more on average)
  • Weather Temperature (Every one-degree temperature drop below Fahrenheit costs the team 300 fans on average)
  • Opponents (When the Indians play the Yankees at home, attendance surges 11,000 on average)
  • Summer Break (When children are on summer break, attendance increases 1,200 on average)
  • Bobblehead Promotions (Bobblehead promotional days drive in 4,700 more people on average)
  • Rain (If rain is in the forecast, attendance decreases by 2,200 on average)
  • Player-Specific Promotions (When the team runs a Grady Sizemore promotion, attendance increases by 6,600 on average)

The club is using its findings from the statistical research to better determine appropriate pricing models, which it hopes will generate a 5% increase in ticket revenue in 2009. The team will a variable four-tiered ticket plan that reflects demand (where ticket prices for games are different based on promotions, opponents, weather, etc.). In other words, the Indians will lower ticket prices when attendance is expected to be low (cold, Spring games, inferior opponents, etc.) and raise them for certain games when demand is high (promotional dates, popular opponents, summer games, etc.)

With most MLB clubs heading into the 2009 season with a cloud of uncertainty - current economic conditions having a direct effect on consumers confidence levels and disposable income spending -  the Indians' statistical analysis is providing their ball club a sense of comfort for what to expect.

Check back for more information on other clubs following the Indians' benchmark in using statistical analysis to more efficiently predict attendance trends and drive incremental revenue dollars.